BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruffed Grouse In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Generalists

Ruffed Grouse in BCR 4 has increased: up 41% on the route-weighted index since 1993.

+41%Since 1993TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ruffed Grouse in BCR 4. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ruffed Grouse in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruffed Grouse in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19862029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.160.000.39
20260.160.000.39
20270.160.000.39
20280.160.000.38
20290.160.000.38

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Ruffed Grouse in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Galena (Short)ALASKA62023
Bear CreekALASKA41986
Anvik RiverALASKA32024
Unalakleet RiverALASKA22024
Hather CreekALASKA22024
Koyukuk Riv.ALASKA22001
CircleALASKA11995
Chatanika RALASKA12013
LivengoodALASKA12011
SlanaALASKA12022
Tower BluffsALASKA12022
NorthwayALASKA12023
L SalchaALASKA12013
Chena Hot Spring 2ALASKA12018
Nicholai SlALASKA12022
ColdfootALASKA12022
Kanuti CanynALASKA12008
McgrathALASKA11999
Manley Ht SpALASKA12016
Mud RiverALASKA12019
RubyALASKA12021
Porcupine R.ALASKA12000
Ft. RichrdsnALASKA12003
TatalinaALASKA12010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.