BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruffed Grouse In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastGeneralists

Ruffed Grouse in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has collapsed: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-85%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruffed Grouse has collapsed in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ruffed Grouse in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2024, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±152.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2024TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2024 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±152.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruffed Grouse in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2024, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±152.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662024
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20200.000.000.04
20210.000.000.04
20220.000.000.04
20230.000.000.04
20240.000.000.04

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Ruffed Grouse in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BrentwoodNEW-HAMPSHIRE31967
Mid HaddamCONNECTICUT21985
MysticCONNECTICUT11990
E HartlandCONNECTICUT11980
UncasvilleCONNECTICUT11981
WoodstockCONNECTICUT11996
WillimanticCONNECTICUT11997
No WoodburyCONNECTICUT11982
ShermanCONNECTICUT11977
WarrenCONNECTICUT11992
Cape NeddickMAINE11977
E DennisMASSACHUSETTS11972
PrattvilleMASSACHUSETTS12000
NewburyportMASSACHUSETTS11967
N OxfordMASSACHUSETTS11968
E PepperellMASSACHUSETTS11973
BelchertownMASSACHUSETTS11995
WarrenMASSACHUSETTS11997
HoldenMASSACHUSETTS11983
Ware RiverMASSACHUSETTS12010
DoverNEW-HAMPSHIRE11975
EpsomNEW-HAMPSHIRE12019
StraffordNEW-HAMPSHIRE12015
AlbionNEW-JERSEY11966
FriendshipNEW-JERSEY11983

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.