BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruffed Grouse In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGeneralists

Ruffed Grouse in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has edged down: down 16% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

-16%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ruffed Grouse in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ruffed Grouse in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 79% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-79%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruffed Grouse in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 79% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.000.05
20260.020.000.05
20270.020.000.05
20280.020.000.05
20290.020.000.05

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Ruffed Grouse in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Grizzly RdgeUTAH102024
BeckUTAH11981
AltonahUTAH11994
Skyline DrivUTAH12003
Wasatch NfUTAH12017
Moon LakeUTAH11998
GooseberryUTAH12013
Beck 2UTAH12016
Heber Mtn.UTAH12022
Moon Lake 2UTAH12023
HannaUTAH12003
FerronUTAH12022
Lost Cr. ResUTAH12015
Logan CanyonUTAH12018
Red Spur Mtn.UTAH12012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.