BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruffed Grouse In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestGeneralists

Ruffed Grouse in Atlantic Northern Forest has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-37%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
137Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ruffed Grouse in Atlantic Northern Forest. See the full index history below.

Ruffed Grouse In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ruffed Grouse in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 54% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-54%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruffed Grouse in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 54% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.130.000.30
20260.130.000.29
20270.130.000.29
20280.130.000.29
20290.130.000.29

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Ruffed Grouse in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WanakenaNEW-YORK122024
BenedictaMAINE52019
MedwayMAINE41998
W RutlandVERMONT42018
BrooksMAINE31995
Weeks BrookMAINE32007
SearsportMAINE32019
Newbury 2VERMONT32023
BiddefordMAINE21985
HartfordMAINE22017
ManchesterMAINE21982
GreenvilleMAINE22018
Ft FairfieldMAINE22004
St DavidMAINE22004
YankeetuladiMAINE22004
Church HillMAINE22006
StacyvilleMAINE22024
AndoverMAINE22018
HancockMASSACHUSETTS22001
Crawford NotNEW-HAMPSHIRE21975
SabattisNEW-YORK21970
Old Forge 2NEW-YORK22014
HardwickVERMONT22005
New HartfordCONNECTICUT11996
NewcastleMAINE12004

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.