BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruffed Grouse In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Ruffed Grouse in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 165% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+165%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
118Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruffed Grouse has surged in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 165% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ruffed Grouse in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 0.99 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.32–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.32–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruffed Grouse in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 0.99 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.32–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.272.0
20261.10.282.0
20271.20.302.0
20281.20.312.0
20291.20.322.1

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Ruffed Grouse in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MareniscoMICHIGAN352019
ChisholmMINNESOTA232024
OntonagonMICHIGAN112019
RacoMICHIGAN112024
BackusMINNESOTA112013
FredericMICHIGAN101997
BigforkMINNESOTA102023
Scott'S MarshMICHIGAN82009
Sherry LakeMINNESOTA82022
MahtowaMINNESOTA82022
Hiawatha NfMICHIGAN72024
EnsignMICHIGAN72009
LudeMINNESOTA62023
CavourWISCONSIN62024
Mille LacsMINNESOTA52008
CohassetMINNESOTA52022
CreightonMICHIGAN42023
IsabellaMICHIGAN41998
Imp LakeMICHIGAN42019
Crane LakeMINNESOTA42022
Maple GroveMICHIGAN32023
Brush CreekMICHIGAN32016
Betchler LksMICHIGAN32019
Big Island LakeMICHIGAN32009
CromwellMINNESOTA32023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.