BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruby-throated Hummingbird In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastGeneralists

Ruby-throated Hummingbird in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 150% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+150%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
144Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruby-throated Hummingbird has surged in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 150% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ruby-throated Hummingbird In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.95 (95% range 0.64–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.95Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.64–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.95 (95% range 0.64–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.900.591.2
20260.920.601.2
20270.930.611.2
20280.940.631.3
20290.950.641.3

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Ruby-throated Hummingbird in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FredericaDELAWARE62014
MarionMASSACHUSETTS62024
TruhartVIRGINIA62023
HarmonyMARYLAND52017
Forest GroveMARYLAND52023
Island CreekMARYLAND52024
BrocktonMASSACHUSETTS52019
Wellfleet 2MASSACHUSETTS42024
White StoneVIRGINIA42023
GloucesterVIRGINIA42023
MiltonDELAWARE32016
Broomes IslMARYLAND31996
MaynardMASSACHUSETTS32022
PomonaNEW-JERSEY32024
WinslowNEW-JERSEY32024
Del HavenNEW-JERSEY31991
Cape May ChNEW-JERSEY32011
WillimanticCONNECTICUT22018
DanburyCONNECTICUT22016
WarrenCONNECTICUT22010
Long HillCONNECTICUT22018
Mid HaddamCONNECTICUT22023
FrankfordDELAWARE22012
Milton 2DELAWARE22017
Tall TimbersMARYLAND22014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.