BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ruby-throated Hummingbird In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 124% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+124%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
394Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruby-throated Hummingbird has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 123% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ruby-throated Hummingbird In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 70% by 2030 — from 0.57 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.98 (95% range 0.62–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+70%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.98Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.62–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 70% by 2030 — from 0.57 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.98 (95% range 0.62–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.940.581.3
20270.950.591.3
20280.960.601.3
20290.970.611.3
20300.980.621.3

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lost RiverWEST-VIRGINIA72019
Cumberlnd GpKENTUCKY62018
StaffordsvilKENTUCKY51997
New MarketVIRGINIA52022
WashburnWEST-VIRGINIA52022
DrummondALABAMA42021
JenningsMARYLAND42025
MurphyNORTH-CAROLINA42018
KaylorPENNSYLVANIA42021
Shenandoa NpVIRGINIA42025
RichwoodWEST-VIRGINIA42025
MartinsburgWEST-VIRGINIA42007
TradeALABAMA32011
WoodvilleALABAMA32024
Pippa PassesKENTUCKY31997
WilliamsportMARYLAND32023
SmithsburgMARYLAND32011
MilfordNEW-YORK32019
Swain 2NEW-YORK32025
CullowheeNORTH-CAROLINA32025
BusickNORTH-CAROLINA31999
New MarshfldOHIO32018
Coal RunOHIO31991
StonecreekOHIO32025
BirminghamOHIO32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.