BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruby-throated Hummingbird In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyGeneralists

Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has declined: down 44% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-44%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Mississippi Alluvial Valley. See the full index history below.

Ruby-throated Hummingbird In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 65% by 2029 — from 0.39 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.65 (95% range 0.04–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+65%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.65Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 65% by 2029 — from 0.39 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.65 (95% range 0.04–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.690.071.3
20260.680.061.3
20270.670.061.3
20280.660.051.3
20290.650.041.3

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS62022
KraemerLOUISIANA62023
DundeeMISSISSIPPI62021
ConcordLOUISIANA42019
Port AllenLOUISIANA42010
Tchula 2MISSISSIPPI41994
Delta N.F.MISSISSIPPI42016
AugustaARKANSAS31997
KeystoneLOUISIANA32006
TchulaMISSISSIPPI31975
Dahomey NwrMISSISSIPPI32023
HarrisburgARKANSAS22019
WhittonARKANSAS21991
MaynardARKANSAS22022
WilsonARKANSAS22012
FloydLOUISIANA22019
TransylvaniaLOUISIANA22022
River RoadLOUISIANA22024
Baton RougeLOUISIANA22024
Panther Swamp NwrMISSISSIPPI22017
KennettMISSOURI22024
TiptonvilleTENNESSEE22022
PawpawTENNESSEE22009
EudoraARKANSAS12014
HughesARKANSAS12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.