BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruby-throated Hummingbird In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasGeneralists

Ruby-throated Hummingbird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has edged down: down 17% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-17%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
103Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ruby-throated Hummingbird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas. See the full index history below.

Ruby-throated Hummingbird In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 0.59 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.77 (95% range 0.01–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.77Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 0.59 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.77 (95% range 0.01–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.800.031.6
20260.790.021.6
20270.790.021.6
20280.780.011.5
20290.770.011.5

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Ruby-throated Hummingbird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PocolaOKLAHOMA82016
PhillipsOKLAHOMA52008
HavanaARKANSAS42021
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA42021
MassardARKANSAS32016
StephensARKANSAS32015
Fort JessupLOUISIANA32022
GoodwillLOUISIANA32021
BlancoOKLAHOMA32016
CanadianOKLAHOMA32017
ChandlerTEXAS31996
WechesTEXAS32024
WaldronARKANSAS22024
StarkARKANSAS22021
LockesburgARKANSAS22018
SpringhillARKANSAS22022
PrincetonARKANSAS22014
NanceARKANSAS22024
Hatfield 2ARKANSAS22024
CypressLOUISIANA21987
Mer RougeLOUISIANA22008
ChathamLOUISIANA21975
LongstreetLOUISIANA22024
ZwolleLOUISIANA22017
WomackLOUISIANA22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.