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Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ruby-throated Hummingbird In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestForest birds

Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Atlantic Northern Forest has risen sharply: up 59% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+59%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
148Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruby-throated Hummingbird has risen sharply in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 59% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ruby-throated Hummingbird In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 28% by 2030 — from 0.92 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.66 (95% range 0.44–0.88). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.66Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.44–0.8895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 28% by 2030 — from 0.92 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.66 (95% range 0.44–0.88). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.640.420.86
20270.650.430.87
20280.650.430.87
20290.660.440.88
20300.660.440.88

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Northfld FlsVERMONT72025
N OrangeMASSACHUSETTS62025
HarmonyMAINE32025
LudlowMAINE31996
Big TwentyMAINE32007
AndoverMAINE32021
CummingtonMASSACHUSETTS32014
ChesterfieldMASSACHUSETTS32019
MckeeverNEW-YORK32021
DegrasseNEW-YORK32025
DannemoraNEW-YORK32006
BethelMAINE22019
ReedsMAINE22025
East TroyMAINE22021
FreedomMAINE22018
CastineMAINE21992
Carrying PlMAINE22025
MedwayMAINE22018
Pillsbury PdMAINE21968
St DavidMAINE22005
Weeks BrookMAINE22003
YankeetuladiMAINE22009
Northfield 2MAINE22016
TopsfieldMAINE21992
MontereyMASSACHUSETTS22019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.