BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruby-throated Hummingbird In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGeneralists

Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 157% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+157%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
81Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruby-throated Hummingbird has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 157% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ruby-throated Hummingbird In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 127% by 2029 — from 0.31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.71 (95% range 0.42–1.00). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+127%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.71Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.42–1.0095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±68.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 127% by 2029 — from 0.31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.71 (95% range 0.42–1.00). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.680.390.96
20260.680.390.97
20270.690.400.98
20280.700.410.99
20290.710.421.00

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CastileNEW-YORK42015
BranchportNEW-YORK32024
LenoxOHIO32022
Ferris CrnrsPENNSYLVANIA32021
MacdougallNEW-YORK22023
Canadice LNEW-YORK22024
West SenecaNEW-YORK22002
NashvilleNEW-YORK22018
E YoungstownNEW-YORK22022
N Victory 2NEW-YORK22018
N WilmurtNEW-YORK21997
ClintonNEW-YORK22011
HopkintonNEW-YORK22021
WillsboroNEW-YORK22021
N VictoryNEW-YORK21968
New SomersetOHIO21993
Valley CityOHIO22014
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA22023
TeeplevillePENNSYLVANIA22023
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA22023
ShaftsburyVERMONT22024
BristolVERMONT21996
RhinebeckNEW-YORK12022
HighlandNEW-YORK12012
W ShokanNEW-YORK12009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.