BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruby-throated Hummingbird In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGeneralists

Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 157% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+157%Since 1968
81Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Ruby-throated Hummingbird has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 157% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 127% by 2029 — from 0.31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.71 (95% range 0.42–1.00). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+127%Change by 2029
0.71Projected 2029 index
0.42–1.0095% range
±68.2%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.680.390.96
20260.680.390.97
20270.690.400.98
20280.700.410.99
20290.710.421.00

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
CastileNEW-YORK42015
BranchportNEW-YORK32024
LenoxOHIO32022
Ferris CrnrsPENNSYLVANIA32021
MacdougallNEW-YORK22023
Canadice LNEW-YORK22024
West SenecaNEW-YORK22002
NashvilleNEW-YORK22018
E YoungstownNEW-YORK22022
N Victory 2NEW-YORK22018
N WilmurtNEW-YORK21997
ClintonNEW-YORK22011
HopkintonNEW-YORK22021
WillsboroNEW-YORK22021
N VictoryNEW-YORK21968
New SomersetOHIO21993
Valley CityOHIO22014
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA22023
TeeplevillePENNSYLVANIA22023
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA22023
ShaftsburyVERMONT22024
BristolVERMONT21996
RhinebeckNEW-YORK12022
HighlandNEW-YORK12012
W ShokanNEW-YORK12009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.