BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ruby-throated Hummingbird In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 118% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+118%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
81Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruby-throated Hummingbird has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 117% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ruby-throated Hummingbird In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 43% by 2030 — from 0.49 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.70 (95% range 0.41–0.99). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+43%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.70Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.41–0.9995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±71.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 43% by 2030 — from 0.49 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.70 (95% range 0.41–0.99). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.670.380.96
20270.680.390.97
20280.690.390.98
20290.690.400.98
20300.700.410.99

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CastileNEW-YORK42015
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA42025
BranchportNEW-YORK32024
E YoungstownNEW-YORK32025
LenoxOHIO32022
MacdougallNEW-YORK22023
West SenecaNEW-YORK22002
NashvilleNEW-YORK22018
N Victory 2NEW-YORK22018
N WilmurtNEW-YORK21997
ClintonNEW-YORK22011
HopkintonNEW-YORK22021
WillsboroNEW-YORK22021
N VictoryNEW-YORK21968
New SomersetOHIO21993
Valley CityOHIO22014
TeeplevillePENNSYLVANIA22023
RhinebeckNEW-YORK12022
HighlandNEW-YORK12012
W ShokanNEW-YORK12009
AusterlitzNEW-YORK12025
CatskillsNEW-YORK12010
GhentNEW-YORK12003
Ballston LkNEW-YORK11969
DuanesburgNEW-YORK12016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.