BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ruby-crowned Kinglet In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestForest birds

Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Northern Pacific Rainforest has surged: up 15× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

15×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
81Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruby-crowned Kinglet has surged in Northern Pacific Rainforest: up 15× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Ruby-crowned Kinglet In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 91% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 1.7–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+91%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–5.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 91% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 1.7–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.21.54.9
20273.21.54.9
20283.31.65.0
20293.31.65.0
20303.41.75.1

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HainesALASKA422025
Chichagof IsALASKA342024
SewardALASKA311992
YakutatALASKA302025
CordovaALASKA262024
HoonahALASKA232024
Moose PassALASKA211992
Kuiu IslandALASKA212010
Copper RiverALASKA152011
Kenai Lake (Short)ALASKA141992
Yakutat (Short)ALASKA141984
Sitka (Short)ALASKA131992
Sheep MtnALASKA122025
SitkaALASKA112024
Elmendorf (Short)ALASKA111985
JuneauALASKA92025
KorbelCALIFORNIA91987
Juneau AltALASKA81986
HopeALASKA82025
Zimovia StrtALASKA82025
Harlequin L.ALASKA82024
Stikine RiverALASKA72024
Hay ForkCALIFORNIA72017
CoquilleOREGON71997
CraigALASKA62025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.