BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruby-crowned Kinglet In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestForest birds

Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Northern Pacific Rainforest has surged: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

16×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
81Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruby-crowned Kinglet has surged in Northern Pacific Rainforest: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Ruby-crowned Kinglet In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.4 (95% range 1.8–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–5.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.4 (95% range 1.8–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.21.64.9
20263.31.65.0
20273.31.75.0
20283.41.75.1
20293.41.85.1

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HopeALASKA542024
HainesALASKA352024
Chichagof IsALASKA342024
SewardALASKA311992
CordovaALASKA262024
HoonahALASKA232024
Moose PassALASKA211992
YakutatALASKA212024
Kuiu IslandALASKA212010
Zimovia StrtALASKA192024
Copper RiverALASKA152011
Kenai Lake (Short)ALASKA141992
Yakutat (Short)ALASKA141984
Sitka (Short)ALASKA131992
JuneauALASKA122024
SitkaALASKA112024
Elmendorf (Short)ALASKA111985
CraigALASKA92024
KorbelCALIFORNIA91987
Juneau AltALASKA81986
Harlequin L.ALASKA82024
Stikine RiverALASKA72024
Hay ForkCALIFORNIA72017
CoquilleOREGON71997
PetersburgALASKA61987

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.