BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruby-crowned Kinglet In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesForest birds

Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1975.

11×Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruby-crowned Kinglet has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Ruby-crowned Kinglet In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 212% by 2029 — from 0.84 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 0.24–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±224.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+212%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.24–5.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±224.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 212% by 2029 — from 0.84 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 0.24–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±224.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.50.094.9
20262.50.134.9
20272.60.174.9
20282.60.205.0
20292.60.245.0

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Black FoxSOUTH-DAKOTA572017
Hill CitySOUTH-DAKOTA552013
Long DrawSOUTH-DAKOTA342024
EnglewoodSOUTH-DAKOTA282021
Maynard CouleeMONTANA232024
RochfordSOUTH-DAKOTA152018
NorbeckSOUTH-DAKOTA132002
Moskee 2WYOMING82019
Elk MountainSOUTH-DAKOTA72004
SundanceWYOMING52023
Roubaix LkSOUTH-DAKOTA31991
Silver CitySOUTH-DAKOTA32012
MoskeeWYOMING32000
CusterSOUTH-DAKOTA22024
MeadowdaleWYOMING21995
Reed PointMONTANA12004
HazelrodtSOUTH-DAKOTA12016
Lightning CrSOUTH-DAKOTA12010
DaytonWYOMING12021
Gvnt ValleyWYOMING12003

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.