BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ruby-crowned Kinglet In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

16×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
138Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruby-crowned Kinglet has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Ruby-crowned Kinglet In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 59% by 2030 — from 6.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 7.7–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.9%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+59%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.7–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 59% by 2030 — from 6.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 7.7–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.9%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.97.013
2027107.213
2028107.413
2029107.513
2030117.713

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Grizzly RdgeUTAH642025
Dry ParkARIZONA542025
Navajo LakeUTAH462025
Red CliffCOLORADO452025
Mount EvansCOLORADO442024
Dolores RivCOLORADO422025
South ForkCOLORADO402025
Haycamp MesaCOLORADO362025
Red Spur Mtn.UTAH352023
TincupCOLORADO342025
Deadman Rd.COLORADO322025
Heeney 2COLORADO312025
Fox ParkWYOMING292025
Guanella PasCOLORADO282025
Lost LakeCOLORADO252025
Ryan ParkWYOMING252025
TsaileARIZONA242023
Owl Creek PassCOLORADO242025
Fox CreekCOLORADO222025
Lake City 2COLORADO222025
Groundhog RsCOLORADO212025
Stillwater PassCOLORADO212009
La SalUTAH212000
Dunckley PasCOLORADO202025
FerronUTAH202025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.