BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruby-crowned Kinglet In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 17× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

17×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
137Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruby-crowned Kinglet has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 17× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Ruby-crowned Kinglet In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 85% by 2029 — from 5.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 7.9–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+85%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.9–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 85% by 2029 — from 5.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 7.9–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
202510.07.213
2026107.413
2027107.613
2028117.713
2029117.913

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Buffalo ParkCOLORADO952023
Grizzly RdgeUTAH752024
Mount EvansCOLORADO442024
Dolores RivCOLORADO402024
Red Spur Mtn.UTAH352023
Fox ParkWYOMING342024
Red CliffCOLORADO322024
Lost LakeCOLORADO292024
ThomasvilleCOLORADO292018
Haycamp MesaCOLORADO292024
Dixie NfUTAH272024
TincupCOLORADO262024
Dry ParkARIZONA252024
South ForkCOLORADO252024
Ryan ParkWYOMING252023
TsaileARIZONA242023
Deadman Rd.COLORADO242024
Fox CreekCOLORADO242024
Rollins PassCOLORADO232022
FlattopsCOLORADO222019
Guanella PasCOLORADO222024
Stillwater PassCOLORADO212009
La SalUTAH212000
Lake CityCOLORADO182003
Lake City 2COLORADO182024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.