BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ruby-crowned Kinglet In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Boreal Hardwood Transition has edged down: down 20% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-20%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Boreal Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Ruby-crowned Kinglet In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 49% by 2030 — from 0.30 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.45 (95% range 0.07–0.83). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+49%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.45Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–0.8395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 49% by 2030 — from 0.30 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.45 (95% range 0.07–0.83). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.460.070.84
20270.460.070.84
20280.450.070.84
20290.450.070.83
20300.450.070.83

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Seney NwrMICHIGAN72019
Cluster LakesMICHIGAN42009
LockportMINNESOTA42025
OntonagonMICHIGAN32019
Sawbill LndgMINNESOTA32025
Sherry LakeMINNESOTA32018
JordanMINNESOTA32025
BabbittMINNESOTA32023
ChisholmMINNESOTA32024
MareniscoMICHIGAN22019
HermanMICHIGAN22022
Gibbs CityMICHIGAN22024
CreightonMICHIGAN22015
Imp LakeMICHIGAN22019
BackusMINNESOTA21978
Hart LakeMINNESOTA22025
BemidjiMINNESOTA21980
Crane LakeMINNESOTA22022
Little ForkMINNESOTA22023
Nett LakeMINNESOTA22018
ShanagoldenWISCONSIN22019
BerglandMICHIGAN12019
BootjackMICHIGAN11995
Ned LakeMICHIGAN12025
Crystal FlsMICHIGAN12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.