BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruby-crowned Kinglet In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesForest birds

Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Northern Rockies has increased: up 33% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+33%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
154Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 37% by 2029 — from 5.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.7 (95% range 4.9–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+37%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.9–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 37% by 2029 — from 5.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.7 (95% range 4.9–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.44.610
20267.54.710
20277.64.710
20287.64.810
20297.74.911

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AlpineWYOMING552024
Colter Bay 2WYOMING542024
Crazy WomanWYOMING412024
Pagil GulchMONTANA352024
YellowstoneWYOMING312022
Hebgen LakeMONTANA292024
Colter BayWYOMING291999
MammothWYOMING292024
Lolo PassIDAHO282019
CobaltIDAHO282024
Black Mtn.OREGON282004
CloverlandWASHINGTON282024
BurgdorfIDAHO262016
SulaMONTANA262024
Horse CreekWYOMING242024
Skalkho-RyeMONTANA232022
Cramer CreekMONTANA232019
Fiddler LkWYOMING222024
Ne EntranceWYOMING212021
Hunter PeakWYOMING202024
Cape HornIDAHO182024
WoodmanMONTANA182024
Howard Mdws.OREGON182024
GrangevilleIDAHO172024
SaveryWYOMING171995

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.