BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Royal Tern In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaWetland birds

Royal Tern in Peninsular Florida has collapsed: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-89%Since 1968
18Routes In Region
53Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Royal Tern has collapsed in Peninsular Florida: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Royal Tern in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.93). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±187.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029
0.00Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.9395% range
±187.6%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.000.000.93
20260.000.000.93
20270.000.000.93
20280.000.000.93
20290.000.000.93

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Royal Tern in Peninsular Florida.
Vero BeachFLORIDA72018
ScottsmoorFLORIDA52024
Boca RatonFLORIDA41988
Merritt Island 2FLORIDA32014
San AntonioFLORIDA21991
Sugarloaf Key 2FLORIDA22018
Merritt IslFLORIDA22008
St AugustineFLORIDA12023
IndiantownFLORIDA12001
Plantation KFLORIDA12004
SebastianFLORIDA11991
ShawanoFLORIDA12001
Key LargoFLORIDA11990
AripekaFLORIDA12023
Indiantown 2FLORIDA12021
Card SoundFLORIDA12021
Sugarloaf KeyFLORIDA12004
Ridge HarborFLORIDA12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.