BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Royal Tern In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastWetland birds

Royal Tern in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has fallen sharply: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-54%Since 1969
17Routes In Region
28Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Royal Tern has fallen sharply in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Royal Tern in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.64). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1245.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028
0.19Projected 2028 index
0.00–0.6495% range
±1245.1%Backtest error
19662028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20240.180.000.63
20250.180.000.63
20260.190.000.63
20270.190.000.64
20280.190.000.64

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Royal Tern in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Cape CharlesVIRGINIA112007
Snow HillMARYLAND71968
SinepuxentMARYLAND31973
White StoneVIRGINIA32017
Bethany BchDELAWARE21985
HongaMARYLAND22023
BerlinMARYLAND21996
SharpsVIRGINIA21999
Chincoteag WVIRGINIA22022
Tall TimbersMARYLAND11997
FruitlandMARYLAND11985
NewarkMARYLAND11968
St. George'S IslandMARYLAND12015
Toms RiverNEW-JERSEY11970
QuinbyVIRGINIA12006
GloucesterVIRGINIA12001
Colonial PkyVIRGINIA11998

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.