BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Royal Tern In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainWetland birds

Royal Tern in Southeastern Coastal Plain has fallen sharply: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-66%Since 1968
33Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Royal Tern has fallen sharply in Southeastern Coastal Plain: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Royal Tern in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 160% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.00–0.85). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±161.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+160%Change by 2029
0.36Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.8595% range
±161.9%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.360.000.86
20260.360.000.86
20270.360.000.86
20280.360.000.85
20290.360.000.85

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Royal Tern in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Dauphin Is 3ALABAMA262021
Myrtle GroveNORTH-CAROLINA212024
Alligator PtFLORIDA182022
Dauphin IsALABAMA91990
Alabama PtALABAMA62003
Chacaloochee BayALABAMA62019
Dauphin Is 2ALABAMA52019
SteinhatcheeFLORIDA31974
Santa RosaFLORIDA32003
SurryVIRGINIA32021
Alabama Pt 2ALABAMA22019
Ft Waltn BchFLORIDA22008
Cross CityFLORIDA22015
Doctors Inlet 2FLORIDA22017
St Vincent IFLORIDA22017
DarienGEORGIA22014
ShallotteNORTH-CAROLINA21990
MashoesNORTH-CAROLINA21982
Johns IsleSOUTH-CAROLINA21979
Kiawah IslandSOUTH-CAROLINA22024
St. ElmoALABAMA12001
Port St JoeFLORIDA12013
Ft GadsdenFLORIDA11980
Port St Joe 2FLORIDA12019
KellerGEORGIA11988

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.