BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 2 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rough-legged Hawk In BCR 2

All regionsBCR 2Generalists

Rough-legged Hawk in BCR 2 has declined: down 26% on the route-weighted index since 1993.

-26%Since 1993TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
26YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rough-legged Hawk in BCR 2. See the full index history below.

Rough-legged Hawk In BCR 2 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rough-legged Hawk in BCR 2 is projected to rise about 74% by 2029 — from 0.22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.39 (95% range 0.02–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±191.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+74%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.39Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.7695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±191.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rough-legged Hawk in BCR 2 is projected to rise about 74% by 2029 — from 0.22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.39 (95% range 0.02–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±191.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19902029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.380.010.75
20260.380.010.75
20270.380.010.76
20280.390.010.76
20290.390.020.76

Routes In BCR 2

Routes recording Rough-legged Hawk in BCR 2.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Goodnews BayALASKA22003
ChiniakALASKA11998
Cold BayALASKA12024
CouncilALASKA12015
NomeALASKA12023
Salmon LakeALASKA12023
TellerALASKA12024
Gweek RiverALASKA11998
Cold Bay (Short)ALASKA11992

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.