BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Roseate Spoonbill In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieWetland birds

Roseate Spoonbill in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 146% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+146%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Roseate Spoonbill has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 146% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Roseate Spoonbill In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Roseate Spoonbill in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 359% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.7 (95% range 1.0–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±388.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+359%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±388.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Roseate Spoonbill in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 359% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.7 (95% range 1.0–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±388.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.30.6312
20276.40.7212
20286.50.8212
20296.60.9112
20306.71.012

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Roseate Spoonbill in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MauriceLOUISIANA302024
Ltl Chenier 2LOUISIANA222010
WoodlawnLOUISIANA202021
WinnieTEXAS142019
Loyola BeachTEXAS122009
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA102011
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS92025
CreoleLOUISIANA81987
BaysideTEXAS82003
Sabine NwrLOUISIANA62002
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA62025
RichardLOUISIANA52025
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA52019
Oyster LakeTEXAS42025
Bayside 2TEXAS42000
Goliad PrairieTEXAS42016
KaplanLOUISIANA32022
PetronilaTEXAS32021
Hinkles FerTEXAS32024
IndianolaTEXAS32024
Rock IslandTEXAS32025
Port AcresTEXAS32023
Moon Lake 2TEXAS32024
EstherLOUISIANA22025
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA22018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.