BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Roseate Spoonbill In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieWetland birds

Roseate Spoonbill in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 148% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+148%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Roseate Spoonbill has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 148% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Roseate Spoonbill In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Roseate Spoonbill in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 46% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.0 (95% range 1.4–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±310.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+46%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±310.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Roseate Spoonbill in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 46% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.0 (95% range 1.4–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±310.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.61.0012
20266.71.112
20276.81.212
20286.91.312
20297.01.413

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Roseate Spoonbill in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MauriceLOUISIANA302024
RichardLOUISIANA222024
Ltl Chenier 2LOUISIANA222010
WoodlawnLOUISIANA202021
EstherLOUISIANA152024
WinnieTEXAS142019
Forked IslandLOUISIANA132024
Loyola BeachTEXAS122009
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA102011
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA92024
CreoleLOUISIANA81987
BaysideTEXAS82003
Sabine NwrLOUISIANA62002
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA52019
Bayside 2TEXAS42000
Goliad PrairieTEXAS42016
KaplanLOUISIANA32022
PetronilaTEXAS32021
Hinkles FerTEXAS32024
IndianolaTEXAS32024
Oyster LakeTEXAS32021
Port AcresTEXAS32023
Moon Lake 2TEXAS32024
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA22018
Sabine Nwr 2LOUISIANA22014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.