BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Roseate Spoonbill In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaWetland birds

Roseate Spoonbill in Peninsular Florida has surged: up 138% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+138%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Roseate Spoonbill has surged in Peninsular Florida: up 138% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Roseate Spoonbill In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Roseate Spoonbill in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 56% by 2030 — from 0.29 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±208.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-56%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±208.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Roseate Spoonbill in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 56% by 2030 — from 0.29 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±208.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.170.001.6
20270.160.001.6
20280.150.001.6
20290.140.001.6
20300.130.001.5

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Roseate Spoonbill in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ScottsmoorFLORIDA122024
SandyFLORIDA122015
Sunniland GrFLORIDA102003
Sandy 2FLORIDA92017
Wildernes PkFLORIDA92012
Merritt Island 2FLORIDA82014
Winter GardnFLORIDA52011
Devils GardnFLORIDA52025
CroomFLORIDA52005
WebbFLORIDA52024
Pleasant GrFLORIDA42008
Merritt IslFLORIDA42011
ChildsFLORIDA32013
Pennywash CrFLORIDA32009
FlamingoFLORIDA32025
Plantation KFLORIDA21991
Boca RatonFLORIDA21982
Indiantown 2FLORIDA22023
Vero BeachFLORIDA22016
Shawano 2FLORIDA22011
Card SoundFLORIDA22015
ChassahowitzFLORIDA22015
San AntonioFLORIDA12005
Polk CityFLORIDA12024
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA12012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.