BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Roseate Spoonbill In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyWetland birds

Roseate Spoonbill in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 164% on the route-weighted index since 1999.

+164%Since 1999TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
21YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Roseate Spoonbill has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 164% on the route-weighted index since 1999.

Roseate Spoonbill In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Roseate Spoonbill in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 18% by 2028 — from 0.18 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.00–0.47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±80.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Roseate Spoonbill in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 18% by 2028 — from 0.18 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.00–0.47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19872028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.200.000.47
20250.200.000.47
20260.200.000.47
20270.210.000.47
20280.210.000.47

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Roseate Spoonbill in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KeystoneLOUISIANA72013
IsolaMISSISSIPPI62021
GibsonLOUISIANA42000
KraemerLOUISIANA42023
BerwickLOUISIANA42016
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA32013
Baton RougeLOUISIANA32011
Eagle LakeMISSISSIPPI32015
RamahLOUISIANA22022
FreetownLOUISIANA12009
BrousvilleLOUISIANA12021
FrogmoreLOUISIANA12023
BelairLOUISIANA12019
Rayville 2LOUISIANA12023
Port AllenLOUISIANA12011
River RoadLOUISIANA12015
Tensas NwrLOUISIANA11987
Tchula 3MISSISSIPPI12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.