BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ring-necked Pheasant In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestGrassland birds

Ring-necked Pheasant in Northern Pacific Rainforest has collapsed: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-94%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ring-necked Pheasant has collapsed in Northern Pacific Rainforest: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Pheasant in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±275.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±275.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Pheasant in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±275.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.001.0
20260.000.001.0
20270.000.001.0
20280.000.001.0
20290.000.001.0

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Ring-necked Pheasant in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
YrekaCALIFORNIA92019
Sams ValleyOREGON52024
Vashon Is.WASHINGTON42006
MendotaWASHINGTON31988
RaymondWASHINGTON32005
GazelleCALIFORNIA22004
TualatinOREGON22001
UmpquaOREGON22024
GarfieldOREGON22013
CoquilleOREGON22012
McminnvilleOREGON22013
Warm BeachWASHINGTON22013
EverettWASHINGTON22024
MukilteoWASHINGTON22017
CarnationWASHINGTON22018
Mendota 2WASHINGTON21997
Mendota 3WASHINGTON22005
Crescent CtyCALIFORNIA11984
Martins FyCALIFORNIA11988
NavarroCALIFORNIA11998
Mt ShastaCALIFORNIA12011
Bodega BayCALIFORNIA11978
SaladoOREGON12002
HauserOREGON11975
WinberryOREGON12009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.