BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ring-necked Pheasant In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaGrassland birds

Ring-necked Pheasant in Coastal California has collapsed: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-93%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ring-necked Pheasant has collapsed in Coastal California: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Pheasant in Coastal California is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±272.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±272.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Pheasant in Coastal California is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±272.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.002.6
20260.000.002.6
20270.000.002.6
20280.000.002.6
20290.000.002.6

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Ring-necked Pheasant in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AthloneCALIFORNIA231989
AtwaterCALIFORNIA222012
TranquillityCALIFORNIA132004
AuburnCALIFORNIA121980
Ora LomaCALIFORNIA92024
CaruthersCALIFORNIA81987
Staten Is.CALIFORNIA82024
GlennCALIFORNIA62023
Lake SuccessCALIFORNIA51996
OrlandCALIFORNIA52019
LivermoreCALIFORNIA51985
OilfieldsCALIFORNIA41981
CordovaCALIFORNIA41981
Bartlett SpsCALIFORNIA42006
CollegevilleCALIFORNIA32004
GravesboroCALIFORNIA31995
MorenoCALIFORNIA31986
ShafterCALIFORNIA31989
Collegeville 2CALIFORNIA32009
HughsonCALIFORNIA22011
Orange CoveCALIFORNIA22006
Mesa GrandeCALIFORNIA22016
AdelaidaCALIFORNIA21975
Elizabeth LkCALIFORNIA21973
OrovilleCALIFORNIA22012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.