BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ring-necked Pheasant In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGrassland birds

Ring-necked Pheasant in Appalachian Mountains has collapsed: down 99% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-99%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
175Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ring-necked Pheasant has collapsed in Appalachian Mountains: down 99% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Pheasant in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2891.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±2891.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Pheasant in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2891.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.72
20260.000.000.72
20270.000.000.72
20280.000.000.72
20290.000.000.72

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Ring-necked Pheasant in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Big FlatPENNSYLVANIA181981
Doubling GapPENNSYLVANIA141977
SardisPENNSYLVANIA111974
Peters MtPENNSYLVANIA61976
DrehersvillePENNSYLVANIA61999
PetersburgOHIO52007
WallerPENNSYLVANIA42023
StoneybreakPENNSYLVANIA42010
Baxter RidgeOHIO31999
RectorPENNSYLVANIA31977
Bald EaglePENNSYLVANIA32024
WestbrookvleNEW-YORK21979
Whitney PtNEW-YORK22008
OxfordNEW-YORK21976
MilfordNEW-YORK22007
SigelPENNSYLVANIA22015
N Pine GrovePENNSYLVANIA21989
RavensburgPENNSYLVANIA21978
DuvallPENNSYLVANIA22015
KittanningPENNSYLVANIA22018
WilliamsburgPENNSYLVANIA22019
WaterstreetPENNSYLVANIA22004
CarsonvillePENNSYLVANIA22017
QuakertownPENNSYLVANIA21989
NeedmorePENNSYLVANIA21981

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.