BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ring-necked Pheasant In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionGrassland birds

Ring-necked Pheasant in Prairie Hardwood Transition has fallen sharply: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-67%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
158Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ring-necked Pheasant has fallen sharply in Prairie Hardwood Transition: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Pheasant in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.4 (95% range 0.00–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±78.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.80.008.0
20263.70.007.8
20273.60.007.7
20283.50.007.6
20293.40.007.5

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Ring-necked Pheasant in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GlenwoodMINNESOTA562019
New LondonMINNESOTA432024
OwendaleMICHIGAN401994
KnappMINNESOTA372024
PrincetonMINNESOTA342024
TyreMICHIGAN331996
Caledonia 2MINNESOTA322024
Chatfield 2MINNESOTA302024
AshbyMINNESOTA272021
North BranchMICHIGAN201999
PettysvilleMICHIGAN141979
OsseoMINNESOTA142024
FestinaIOWA122024
DresserWISCONSIN122024
WeyerhauserWISCONSIN122024
OmroWISCONSIN122001
Drayton PlnsMICHIGAN101987
HamburgMICHIGAN102001
St StephenMINNESOTA102008
WhitewaterMINNESOTA102000
S LyonsMICHIGAN91992
Brook ParkMINNESOTA92024
UnityWISCONSIN92024
MinnetonkaMINNESOTA82024
HamtramckMICHIGAN71984

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.