BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ring-necked Pheasant In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGame birds

Ring-necked Pheasant in Shortgrass Prairie has collapsed: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-78%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
105Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ring-necked Pheasant has collapsed in Shortgrass Prairie: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Ring-necked Pheasant In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Pheasant in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 34% by 2030 — from 6.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 0.00–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Pheasant in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 34% by 2030 — from 6.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 0.00–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.70.0017
20275.40.0016
20285.10.0016
20294.80.0016
20304.40.0015

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Ring-necked Pheasant in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PaxtonNEBRASKA1072016
BrownsonNEBRASKA712025
Hay SpringsNEBRASKA632025
LakinKANSAS582022
LeotiKANSAS572022
PlymellKANSAS532025
WakaTEXAS492025
BenkelmanNEBRASKA412025
ChampionNEBRASKA412018
HookerOKLAHOMA382025
JulesburgCOLORADO372021
FlemingCOLORADO332025
WinonaKANSAS332018
AmherstCOLORADO302024
ClaytonvilleTEXAS282022
KeyesOKLAHOMA272024
GrigstonKANSAS262024
RuletonKANSAS252022
WaverlyCOLORADO242019
TwichellTEXAS242025
BereaNEBRASKA212025
Two ButtesCOLORADO152025
WallaceKANSAS152022
TexlineTEXAS142025
YoderWYOMING142025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.