BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ring-necked Pheasant In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGrassland birds

Ring-necked Pheasant in Shortgrass Prairie has collapsed: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-78%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
105Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ring-necked Pheasant has collapsed in Shortgrass Prairie: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Pheasant in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.7 (95% range 0.00–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Pheasant in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.7 (95% range 0.00–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.90.0017
20265.60.0017
20275.30.0016
20285.00.0016
20294.70.0016

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Ring-necked Pheasant in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PaxtonNEBRASKA1072016
Hay SpringsNEBRASKA612024
HookerOKLAHOMA602024
LakinKANSAS582022
LeotiKANSAS572022
BrownsonNEBRASKA532021
BereaNEBRASKA492019
ChampionNEBRASKA412018
BenkelmanNEBRASKA392022
JulesburgCOLORADO372021
WinonaKANSAS332018
AmherstCOLORADO302024
ClaytonvilleTEXAS282022
KeyesOKLAHOMA272024
GrigstonKANSAS262024
RuletonKANSAS252022
WaverlyCOLORADO242019
PlymellKANSAS202024
WakaTEXAS172024
CheyenneCOLORADO152024
WallaceKANSAS152022
UlyssesKANSAS142024
YoderWYOMING142024
TexlineTEXAS132024
BethuneCOLORADO102019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.