BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ring-necked Pheasant In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGrassland birds

Ring-necked Pheasant in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has fallen sharply: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-54%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ring-necked Pheasant has fallen sharply in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Pheasant in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 41% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±97.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-41%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±97.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Pheasant in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 41% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±97.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.160.000.76
20260.150.000.74
20270.130.000.73
20280.120.000.71
20290.100.000.69

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Ring-necked Pheasant in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sybille CynWYOMING501997
FruitaCOLORADO132007
JensenUTAH132024
AztecNEW-MEXICO91989
DoloresCOLORADO51985
BlancaCOLORADO51986
CastletonUTAH41985
Castle DaleUTAH42024
HannaUTAH41997
AltonahUTAH32001
DragertonUTAH32022
AnethUTAH32007
Beck 2UTAH31995
Douglas PassCOLORADO22000
ParlinCOLORADO22009
PaoniaCOLORADO22024
BasinCOLORADO22008
Rifle FallsCOLORADO22021
NuclaCOLORADO22010
FarmingtonNEW-MEXICO21987
GallinasNEW-MEXICO22011
VernalUTAH22017
WellingtonUTAH22002
EscalanteUTAH22024
YampaCOLORADO11970

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.