BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ring-necked Pheasant In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionGrassland birds

Ring-necked Pheasant in Boreal Hardwood Transition has fallen sharply: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-69%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ring-necked Pheasant has fallen sharply in Boreal Hardwood Transition: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Pheasant in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±167.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.19Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±167.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Pheasant in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±167.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.210.000.61
20260.200.000.60
20270.200.000.60
20280.200.000.59
20290.190.000.59

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Ring-necked Pheasant in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Washington IWISCONSIN72024
WilsonMICHIGAN52010
Lake CityMICHIGAN42009
GilmanWISCONSIN42022
Hubbard LakeMICHIGAN31996
CunardMICHIGAN22021
PickfordMICHIGAN22019
Wigwam BayMINNESOTA22021
FloodwoodMINNESOTA22017
GreenbushMINNESOTA22001
Iron RiverWISCONSIN21999
BayfieldWISCONSIN22001
Union TwpWISCONSIN22022
Rib LakeWISCONSIN22024
IsabellaMICHIGAN11998
GilchristMICHIGAN12007
Skegemog PtMICHIGAN11991
Traverse CtyMICHIGAN11975
SkeelsMICHIGAN12015
Red OakMICHIGAN12002
OberlinMICHIGAN12006
CathroMICHIGAN12011
Sand LakeMICHIGAN12011
Isabella 2MICHIGAN12018
HarriettaMICHIGAN12006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.