BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ring-billed Gull In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinWetland birds

Ring-billed Gull in Great Basin has edged down: down 11% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-11%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
112Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ring-billed Gull in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ring-billed Gull in Great Basin is projected to rise about 149% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.2 (95% range 0.00–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±186.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+149%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±186.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ring-billed Gull in Great Basin is projected to rise about 149% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.2 (95% range 0.00–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±186.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.70.0019
20267.60.0019
20277.40.0019
20287.30.0018
20297.20.0018

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Ring-billed Gull in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DorrisCALIFORNIA2762019
Blacks CreekIDAHO2732017
LikelyCALIFORNIA2302024
Hanford SiteWASHINGTON2111996
OthelloWASHINGTON1481991
UmatillaOREGON922023
MesaWASHINGTON822008
KeystoneWASHINGTON802024
MoraIDAHO592024
PicaboIDAHO542021
CraneOREGON471998
LakeviewOREGON462010
PrincetonOREGON431985
GardnervilleNEVADA402004
HenryIDAHO371981
MacdoelCALIFORNIA352019
MontagueOREGON331989
Dobbin CreekNEVADA292014
NubieberCALIFORNIA262007
PocatelloIDAHO242013
SheavilleOREGON232021
CallaoUTAH232016
PotholesWASHINGTON222023
DuboisIDAHO212008
Fish LakeOREGON211998

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.