BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ring-billed Gull In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestWetland birds

Ring-billed Gull in Northern Pacific Rainforest has collapsed: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-94%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ring-billed Gull has collapsed in Northern Pacific Rainforest: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ring-billed Gull in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±240%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±240%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ring-billed Gull in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±240%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.006.3
20260.000.006.3
20270.000.006.3
20280.000.006.3
20290.000.006.3

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Ring-billed Gull in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CougarWASHINGTON581992
Warm Beach 2WASHINGTON112024
HauserOREGON91972
Mt ShastaCALIFORNIA72002
Warm BeachWASHINGTON52004
DeceptionWASHINGTON31997
OrleansCALIFORNIA21980
Bodega BayCALIFORNIA21997
Hazel CampOREGON21980
CarnationWASHINGTON21995
Crescent CtyCALIFORNIA11991
Fish RockCALIFORNIA11997
MccloudCALIFORNIA12002
LaytonvilleCALIFORNIA11982
YrekaCALIFORNIA12019
TualatinOREGON11989
WedderburnOREGON11975
AdairOREGON11989
Emigrant LkOREGON11990
GlasgowOREGON11994
Nicolai Mtn.OREGON12018
McminnvilleOREGON11996
SalemOREGON12015
OzetteWASHINGTON11994
TaholahWASHINGTON12011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.