BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ring-billed Gull In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsWetland birds

Ring-billed Gull in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 15× on the route-weighted index since 1972.

15×Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ring-billed Gull has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 15× on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ring-billed Gull in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 217% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±307.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+217%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.24Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±307.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ring-billed Gull in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 217% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±307.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.230.000.47
20260.230.000.47
20270.240.000.48
20280.240.000.48
20290.240.000.49

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Ring-billed Gull in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RosecransPENNSYLVANIA352002
East JavaNEW-YORK312023
New RinggoldPENNSYLVANIA312002
DrydenNEW-YORK172024
DownsvilleNEW-YORK71995
GainesvilleNEW-YORK52023
WilliamsportMARYLAND41984
WakenaPENNSYLVANIA41990
MeadowbrookOHIO32016
KittanningPENNSYLVANIA31997
Wild CreekPENNSYLVANIA31996
Pine GroveALABAMA21997
SteyerMARYLAND22000
AustinvillePENNSYLVANIA22007
VindexMARYLAND11983
MidvaleNEW-JERSEY11997
BloomsburyNEW-JERSEY12011
High PointNEW-JERSEY12003
SwainNEW-YORK11988
S VandaliaNEW-YORK11972
N WashingtonPENNSYLVANIA12005
Mawr GlenPENNSYLVANIA11995
MillvillePENNSYLVANIA11981
HonesdalePENNSYLVANIA11992
GreentownPENNSYLVANIA12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.