BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ring-billed Gull In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainWetland birds

Ring-billed Gull in Southeastern Coastal Plain has collapsed: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-93%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ring-billed Gull has collapsed in Southeastern Coastal Plain: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Ring-billed Gull In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ring-billed Gull in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±83.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ring-billed Gull in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.10
20260.000.000.09
20270.000.000.09
20280.000.000.09
20290.000.000.09

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Ring-billed Gull in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MattamuskeetNORTH-CAROLINA262001
Johns IsleSOUTH-CAROLINA41969
Alabama Pt 2ALABAMA32014
Port St JoeFLORIDA31991
CaytonNORTH-CAROLINA32022
Bon SecourALABAMA21994
St. ElmoALABAMA22006
Ft GadsdenFLORIDA21990
Alligator PtFLORIDA21999
Dauphin IsALABAMA11987
Alabama PtALABAMA12003
Dauphin Is 2ALABAMA12013
Ft Waltn BchFLORIDA12007
Broad BranchFLORIDA11978
CovingtonFLORIDA11991
Santa RosaFLORIDA12003
Cross CityFLORIDA12015
DarienGEORGIA11982
StocktonGEORGIA12014
ShallotteNORTH-CAROLINA11990
MerrimonNORTH-CAROLINA12013
Myrtle GroveNORTH-CAROLINA12024
ArapahoeNORTH-CAROLINA11992
CaliforniaNORTH-CAROLINA11977
SupplyNORTH-CAROLINA11997

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.