BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ring-billed Gull In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionWetland birds

Ring-billed Gull in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 172% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+172%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
92Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ring-billed Gull has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 172% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ring-billed Gull In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ring-billed Gull in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 199% by 2030 — from 3.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.4 (95% range 0.00–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±307.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+199%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±307.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ring-billed Gull in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 199% by 2030 — from 3.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.4 (95% range 0.00–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±307.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.00.0019
20279.10.0019
20289.20.0019
20299.30.0019
20309.40.0019

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Ring-billed Gull in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GraytownOHIO1981984
OmroWISCONSIN962001
KielWISCONSIN802025
LimestoneOHIO682024
BismarkOHIO631995
Omro 2WISCONSIN632025
PrattvilleMICHIGAN592004
HamtramckMICHIGAN591984
LawrenceMICHIGAN532025
St CharlesMICHIGAN482019
Wis RapidsWISCONSIN342023
St StephenMINNESOTA312007
MinnetonkaMINNESOTA242025
VickeryOHIO232025
HollandWISCONSIN232025
Allegan WmaMICHIGAN212010
New TroyMICHIGAN202024
CumberlandWISCONSIN202005
BrownsvilleWISCONSIN182010
AdairMICHIGAN161990
MiddleburyINDIANA152010
CoopersvilleMICHIGAN152024
AdrianMICHIGAN142017
Indiana DuneINDIANA112025
New BuffaloMICHIGAN112013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.