BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ring-billed Gull In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionWetland birds

Ring-billed Gull in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 154% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+154%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
92Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ring-billed Gull has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 154% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ring-billed Gull In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ring-billed Gull in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 194% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.8 (95% range 0.00–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±279.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+194%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±279.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ring-billed Gull in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 194% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.8 (95% range 0.00–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±279.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.30.0019
20269.40.0019
20279.50.0019
20289.60.0020
20299.80.0020

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Ring-billed Gull in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GraytownOHIO1981984
LawrenceMICHIGAN1322024
OmroWISCONSIN962001
LimestoneOHIO682024
BismarkOHIO631995
PrattvilleMICHIGAN592004
HamtramckMICHIGAN591984
St CharlesMICHIGAN482019
HollandWISCONSIN462024
Wis RapidsWISCONSIN342023
KielWISCONSIN342022
St StephenMINNESOTA312007
Allegan WmaMICHIGAN212010
New TroyMICHIGAN202024
CumberlandWISCONSIN202005
BrownsvilleWISCONSIN182010
AdairMICHIGAN161990
MiddleburyINDIANA152010
CoopersvilleMICHIGAN152024
Indiana DuneINDIANA142024
AdrianMICHIGAN142017
VeronaWISCONSIN122023
New BuffaloMICHIGAN112013
Le CenterMINNESOTA102016
VickeryOHIO82024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.