BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ring-billed Gull In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieWetland birds

Ring-billed Gull in Shortgrass Prairie has edged down: down 23% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-23%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
28YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ring-billed Gull in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ring-billed Gull in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±729.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±729.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ring-billed Gull in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±729.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.130.000.34
20260.130.000.34
20270.130.000.34
20280.130.000.34
20290.130.000.34

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Ring-billed Gull in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fort MorganCOLORADO212000
YoderWYOMING212004
HaswellCOLORADO162010
BriggsdaleCOLORADO112023
PaxtonNEBRASKA101995
ArsenalCOLORADO71992
MaxwellNEW-MEXICO72011
Murray LakeNEBRASKA62010
FlemingCOLORADO31991
HudsonCOLORADO32004
Wildhorse LCOLORADO22024
Last ChanceCOLORADO11974
Prospect ValCOLORADO11994
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO11996
NeegrandeCOLORADO12016
JulesburgCOLORADO12014
ElbertCOLORADO12014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.