BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ring-billed Gull In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesWetland birds

Ring-billed Gull in Badlands and Prairies has risen sharply: up 51% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+51%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ring-billed Gull has risen sharply in Badlands and Prairies: up 51% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ring-billed Gull in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 0.89 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.60 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.60Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ring-billed Gull in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 0.89 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.60 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.600.001.7
20260.600.001.7
20270.600.001.7
20280.600.001.7
20290.600.001.7

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Ring-billed Gull in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Two DotMONTANA322024
LaplantSOUTH-DAKOTA141990
ShawmutMONTANA122024
JordanMONTANA72024
UptonWYOMING72024
HighwoodMONTANA62017
LacreekSOUTH-DAKOTA51996
RoyMONTANA42013
SavageMONTANA41993
FlatwillowMONTANA42007
Flatwillow 2MONTANA42017
BowmanNORTH-DAKOTA42010
HayesSOUTH-DAKOTA41995
ZapNORTH-DAKOTA32002
CircleMONTANA21987
ForsythMONTANA21998
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA22013
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA22019
TobaccoNORTH-DAKOTA22019
Glen UllinNORTH-DAKOTA22006
ChamberlainSOUTH-DAKOTA22011
Ft ThompsonSOUTH-DAKOTA22011
PioneerSOUTH-DAKOTA22024
DwyerWYOMING21994
LeroyMONTANA11989

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.