BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ring-billed Gull In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestWetland birds

Ring-billed Gull in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 959% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+959%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ring-billed Gull has surged in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 959% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ring-billed Gull in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 155% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.49 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±282%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+155%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.49Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±282%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ring-billed Gull in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 155% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.49 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±282%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.480.001.3
20260.480.001.3
20270.490.001.3
20280.490.001.3
20290.490.001.3

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Ring-billed Gull in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
W RutlandVERMONT301971
FletcherVERMONT112024
NewcastleMAINE102023
HarmonyMAINE102015
UnderwoodNEW-YORK101995
CarrabassettMAINE92023
GreenvilleMAINE82022
DebloisMAINE62007
MilanNEW-HAMPSHIRE62003
HardwickVERMONT51986
GreensboroVERMONT51998
St DavidMAINE42005
DannemoraNEW-YORK41977
SciotaNEW-YORK41998
WatervilleVERMONT41980
Otisfield GrMAINE32011
Seboomook LkMAINE32012
Wilson MillsMAINE22023
GreenwoodMAINE22014
BrooksMAINE22017
Moose RiverMAINE22007
WashburnMAINE22004
BoundaryMAINE22015
Jefferson HlNEW-HAMPSHIRE22001
WestbrookMAINE12007

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.