BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ring-billed Gull In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainWetland birds

Ring-billed Gull in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 34× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

34×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ring-billed Gull has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 34× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ring-billed Gull in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 112% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 0.00–48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±343.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+112%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±343.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ring-billed Gull in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 112% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 0.00–48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±343.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025220.0048
2026220.0048
2027220.0048
2028220.0048
2029220.0048

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Ring-billed Gull in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WatertownNEW-YORK3032012
OgdensburgNEW-YORK2282024
SheridanNEW-YORK1002024
E YoungstownNEW-YORK882023
West BangorNEW-YORK601999
Grand IsleVERMONT572024
BristolVERMONT392018
PulaskiNEW-YORK282024
MacdougallNEW-YORK242024
RomulusNEW-YORK222000
HamburgNEW-YORK222024
HinesburgVERMONT221994
PeruOHIO201977
CayugaNEW-YORK192015
EspyvillePENNSYLVANIA162024
CastileNEW-YORK92016
North EastonNEW-YORK91990
ColchesterVERMONT72024
West SenecaNEW-YORK62004
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK62024
MendonNEW-YORK51994
WillsboroNEW-YORK52024
Cherry HillNEW-YORK42019
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK42024
LenoxOHIO42007

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.