BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ring-billed Gull In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionWetland birds

Ring-billed Gull in Boreal Hardwood Transition has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-47%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ring-billed Gull in Boreal Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ring-billed Gull in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 461% by 2029 — from 0.96 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.4 (95% range 0.00–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±567.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+461%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±567.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ring-billed Gull in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 461% by 2029 — from 0.96 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.4 (95% range 0.00–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±567.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.50.0015
20265.50.0015
20275.40.0015
20285.40.0015
20295.40.0015

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Ring-billed Gull in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CathroMICHIGAN1162016
Beaver LakeMICHIGAN782011
PickfordMICHIGAN582024
BootjackMICHIGAN542023
LudeMINNESOTA482023
Traverse CtyMICHIGAN371985
Lake CityMICHIGAN322014
WarroadMINNESOTA282022
HermanMICHIGAN222015
Nett LakeMINNESOTA202014
Isabella 2MICHIGAN172023
HerronMICHIGAN172016
CouderayWISCONSIN162012
RiggsvilleMICHIGAN152019
Hubbard LakeMICHIGAN151996
CrandonWISCONSIN132015
Walloon LakeMICHIGAN112004
NebishMINNESOTA112022
OntonagonMICHIGAN72019
ChaffeyWISCONSIN72016
TahquamenonMICHIGAN62006
SkeelsMICHIGAN62007
Rib LakeWISCONSIN62012
Pleasant ValMICHIGAN51997
Pine RiverMINNESOTA52022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.