BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Reddish Egret In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieWetland birds

Reddish Egret in Gulf Coastal Prairie has declined: down 35% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

-35%Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Reddish Egret in Gulf Coastal Prairie. See the full index history below.

Reddish Egret In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Reddish Egret in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 0.23 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±177.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±177.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Reddish Egret in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 0.23 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±177.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.190.000.56
20270.190.000.56
20280.190.000.56
20290.190.000.56
20300.180.000.56

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Reddish Egret in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Oyster LakeTEXAS32025
IndianolaTEXAS22023
Bayside 2TEXAS22001
Bayside 3TEXAS22025
Grand IsleLOUISIANA12014
Lag AtascosaTEXAS11995
Rock IslandTEXAS11983
ChinquapinTEXAS12024
BaysideTEXAS12010
San PedroTEXAS12011
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS12013
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS12022
Padre Island PaisTEXAS12015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.