BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-faced Warbler In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalForest birds

Red-faced Warbler in Sierra Madre Occidental has surged: up 243% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+243%Since 1970
18Routes In Region
54Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Red-faced Warbler has surged in Sierra Madre Occidental: up 243% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-faced Warbler in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 101% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.38–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+101%Change by 2029
2.5Projected 2029 index
0.38–4.595% range
±32.5%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20252.40.364.5
20262.40.364.5
20272.40.374.5
20282.40.374.5
20292.50.384.5

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Red-faced Warbler in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Mt. GrahamARIZONA442023
PrescottARIZONA162022
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO112024
ReserveNEW-MEXICO92023
Happy JackARIZONA82024
FlagstaffARIZONA61988
AlpineARIZONA32023
PortalARIZONA32024
RuckerARIZONA22004
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO22005
Mormon LakeARIZONA11974
Aztec PeakARIZONA11978
BlueARIZONA11990
WilliamsARIZONA12018
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA12021
PinetopARIZONA12021
Carr MtnARIZONA12017
SprucedaleARIZONA12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.