BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-eyed Vireo In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Red-eyed Vireo in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 170% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+170%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
405Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-eyed Vireo has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 170% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-eyed Vireo in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 37 in 2024 to a central estimate of 42 (95% range 36–47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
36–4795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-eyed Vireo in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 37 in 2024 to a central estimate of 42 (95% range 36–47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025403446
2026403546
2027413546
2028413647
2029423647

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Red-eyed Vireo in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tar HollowOHIO1452024
Tussey Mtn.PENNSYLVANIA1432024
FinzelMARYLAND1352024
JenningsMARYLAND1242024
Piney GroveMARYLAND1072024
OdinPENNSYLVANIA1072024
Mill RunPENNSYLVANIA1042024
EllentonPENNSYLVANIA982024
MunsonPENNSYLVANIA882024
StoneybreakPENNSYLVANIA872024
Wild CreekPENNSYLVANIA872024
Mawr GlenPENNSYLVANIA852024
GreentownPENNSYLVANIA832024
Marsh HillPENNSYLVANIA822024
StaffordsvilKENTUCKY781997
Mohican S.F.OHIO782024
DuboistownPENNSYLVANIA782024
OldtownMARYLAND772024
St CollegePENNSYLVANIA762024
Laurel HillPENNSYLVANIA762024
DownsvilleNEW-YORK742019
SusquehannaPENNSYLVANIA742024
Warrens MillPENNSYLVANIA742024
Roulette 2PENNSYLVANIA742024
New MarketVIRGINIA742024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.