BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-eyed Vireo In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Red-eyed Vireo in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 120% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+120%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-eyed Vireo has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 120% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-eyed Vireo In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-eyed Vireo in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 17 (95% range 14–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
14–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-eyed Vireo in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 17 (95% range 14–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025161319
2026161419
2027161419
2028161419
2029171419

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Red-eyed Vireo in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ShaftsburyVERMONT912024
N WilmurtNEW-YORK801998
ParishvilleNEW-YORK742024
W ShokanNEW-YORK582019
BalmatNEW-YORK532008
CatskillsNEW-YORK322015
HarrisvillePENNSYLVANIA322023
BranchportNEW-YORK312024
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK302024
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK302024
HinesburgVERMONT301994
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA282023
EspyvillePENNSYLVANIA272024
TeeplevillePENNSYLVANIA272024
NaplesNEW-YORK262024
North EastonNEW-YORK252024
AusterlitzNEW-YORK222024
NashvilleNEW-YORK222018
PulaskiNEW-YORK222024
ArgyleNEW-YORK212024
BristolVERMONT212018
SalemNEW-YORK202024
WillsboroNEW-YORK192024
Ferris CrnrsPENNSYLVANIA192024
OneidaNEW-YORK182010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.