BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-eyed Vireo In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Red-eyed Vireo in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 125% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+125%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-eyed Vireo has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 125% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-eyed Vireo In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-eyed Vireo in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 17 (95% range 14–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
14–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-eyed Vireo in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 17 (95% range 14–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026161419
2027161419
2028171419
2029171419
2030171419

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Red-eyed Vireo in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ShaftsburyVERMONT942025
N WilmurtNEW-YORK801998
ParishvilleNEW-YORK732025
North PownalVERMONT652025
W ShokanNEW-YORK582019
BalmatNEW-YORK532008
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK402025
BristolVERMONT392025
HarrisvillePENNSYLVANIA352025
CatskillsNEW-YORK322015
BranchportNEW-YORK312024
NaplesNEW-YORK312025
HinesburgVERMONT301994
OgdensburgNEW-YORK282025
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK252025
SheridanNEW-YORK232025
North EastonNEW-YORK232025
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA232025
NashvilleNEW-YORK222018
PulaskiNEW-YORK222025
EspyvillePENNSYLVANIA222025
ArgyleNEW-YORK212024
TeeplevillePENNSYLVANIA212025
WillsboroNEW-YORK192024
OneidaNEW-YORK182010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.