BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red Crossbill In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestForest birds

Red Crossbill in Northern Pacific Rainforest has increased: up 49% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+49%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
133Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red Crossbill in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Red Crossbill In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 55% by 2030 — from 2.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 0.15–8.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+55%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.15–8.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±96.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 55% by 2030 — from 2.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 0.15–8.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.20.018.3
20274.20.058.3
20284.20.088.4
20294.30.118.4
20304.30.158.4

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Red Crossbill in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
YakutatALASKA1502014
TaholahWASHINGTON1402022
PetersburgALASKA1331987
Mendota 2WASHINGTON421996
MukilteoWASHINGTON352015
Secret ValOREGON341988
NeiltonWASHINGTON321975
GlasgowOREGON272024
Redwood N.P. 2CALIFORNIA242013
SvensenOREGON241992
Vashon Is.WASHINGTON242025
Days CreekOREGON222021
HainesALASKA211999
Nicolai Mtn.OREGON202025
Port AngelesWASHINGTON192025
CamasWASHINGTON182005
Mendota 3WASHINGTON162025
Trask SummitOREGON152023
Riley PeakOREGON152014
Juneau AltALASKA141984
Rio DellCALIFORNIA142005
UmpquaOREGON142024
LoraneOREGON132025
ShellrockOREGON122023
Harlequin L.ALASKA102023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.