BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red Crossbill In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestGeneralists

Red Crossbill in Northern Pacific Rainforest has surged: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+80%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
131Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red Crossbill has surged in Northern Pacific Rainforest: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Red Crossbill In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 143% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 0.21–8.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±141.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+143%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.21–8.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±141.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 143% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 0.21–8.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±141.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.20.078.4
20264.30.108.4
20274.30.148.5
20284.30.178.5
20294.40.218.5

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Red Crossbill in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
YakutatALASKA1502014
TaholahWASHINGTON1402022
PetersburgALASKA1331987
Hurricane RgWASHINGTON552023
Mendota 2WASHINGTON421996
ScioOREGON352005
MukilteoWASHINGTON352015
Secret ValOREGON341988
NeiltonWASHINGTON321975
GlasgowOREGON272024
OzetteWASHINGTON252022
Redwood N.P. 2CALIFORNIA242013
SvensenOREGON241992
Days CreekOREGON222021
HainesALASKA211999
CamasWASHINGTON182005
Trask SummitOREGON152023
Riley PeakOREGON152014
Juneau AltALASKA141984
Rio DellCALIFORNIA142005
UmpquaOREGON142024
Thorne Bay 2ALASKA132024
ShellrockOREGON122023
Harlequin L.ALASKA102023
DirigioCALIFORNIA102006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.