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Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red Crossbill In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGeneralists

Red Crossbill in Sierra Madre Occidental has declined: down 48% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-48%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red Crossbill in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Red Crossbill In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 86% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-86%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.26Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 86% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.340.002.1
20260.320.002.1
20270.300.002.1
20280.280.002.1
20290.260.002.1

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Red Crossbill in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Happy JackARIZONA322024
MaineARIZONA142016
PrescottARIZONA102019
Aztec PeakARIZONA71977
ReserveNEW-MEXICO52023
AlpineARIZONA42022
Forest LakesARIZONA31997
BlueARIZONA21988
WilliamsARIZONA22018
PinetopARIZONA22022
SprucedaleARIZONA22015
RuckerARIZONA22008
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO21998
FlagstaffARIZONA12022
Mormon LakeARIZONA11975
Clay SpringARIZONA12012
PortalARIZONA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.