BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red Crossbill In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaGeneralists

Red Crossbill in Coastal California has declined: down 42% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

-42%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
28YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red Crossbill in Coastal California. See the full index history below.

Red Crossbill In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Coastal California is projected to fall about 63% by 2024 — from 0.12 in 2019 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-63%Change by 2024TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2024 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±78.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Coastal California is projected to fall about 63% by 2024 — from 0.12 in 2019 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692024
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20200.050.000.30
20210.050.000.30
20220.050.000.30
20230.040.000.29
20240.040.000.29

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Red Crossbill in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Big BearCALIFORNIA61969
TujungaCALIFORNIA51976
ValyermoCALIFORNIA52019
Point ReyesCALIFORNIA22010
Sawmill MtnCALIFORNIA22012
Waterman GapCALIFORNIA22013
Green ValleyCALIFORNIA12018
TehamaCALIFORNIA12019
Bartlett SpsCALIFORNIA11988
PescaderoCALIFORNIA12013
Hough SpringsCALIFORNIA12002

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.