BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red Crossbill In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Red Crossbill in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 524% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

+524%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red Crossbill in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Red Crossbill In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 0.10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.01–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-45%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 0.10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.01–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.050.010.09
20270.050.010.10
20280.050.010.10
20290.060.010.10
20300.060.010.10

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Red Crossbill in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Glade Run 2WEST-VIRGINIA142007
Newfound GapTENNESSEE102025
Borden Springs 2ALABAMA72024
Swain 2NEW-YORK72022
BemisWEST-VIRGINIA72019
Table RockNORTH-CAROLINA42022
JasperTENNESSEE42021
Cades CoveTENNESSEE42025
DrydenNEW-YORK32022
FontanaNORTH-CAROLINA32025
French Broad RiverNORTH-CAROLINA32025
Mountain CtyGEORGIA22009
Phillips CrNEW-YORK21999
SwainNEW-YORK22004
CullowheeNORTH-CAROLINA22024
SaltvilleVIRGINIA21995
WashburnWEST-VIRGINIA21976
Borden SprngALABAMA11998
McdonoughNEW-YORK12017
WatervilleNORTH-CAROLINA12025
NagineyPENNSYLVANIA11998
BattlecreekSOUTH-CAROLINA12002
TellicoTENNESSEE12023
Rural RetrtVIRGINIA11992
Green BankWEST-VIRGINIA12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.