BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red Crossbill In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGeneralists

Red Crossbill in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 468% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

+468%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red Crossbill has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 468% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

Red Crossbill In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 48% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.01–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-48%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.0995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 48% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.01–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.040.010.08
20260.050.010.08
20270.050.010.09
20280.050.010.09
20290.050.010.09

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Red Crossbill in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Glade Run 2WEST-VIRGINIA142007
French Broad RiverNORTH-CAROLINA92023
Borden Springs 2ALABAMA72024
Swain 2NEW-YORK72022
Cades CoveTENNESSEE72024
BemisWEST-VIRGINIA72019
FontanaNORTH-CAROLINA52024
Table RockNORTH-CAROLINA42022
JasperTENNESSEE42021
DrydenNEW-YORK32022
Mountain CtyGEORGIA22009
Phillips CrNEW-YORK21999
SwainNEW-YORK22004
CullowheeNORTH-CAROLINA22024
WatervilleNORTH-CAROLINA22016
SaltvilleVIRGINIA21995
WashburnWEST-VIRGINIA21976
Borden SprngALABAMA11998
McdonoughNEW-YORK12017
NagineyPENNSYLVANIA11998
BattlecreekSOUTH-CAROLINA12002
TellicoTENNESSEE12023
Newfound GapTENNESSEE12023
Rural RetrtVIRGINIA11992
Green BankWEST-VIRGINIA12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.