BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red Crossbill In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

Red Crossbill in Shortgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

-62%Since 1981TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red Crossbill has fallen sharply in Shortgrass Prairie: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

Red Crossbill In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.80). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±435.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±435.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.80). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±435.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.150.000.82
20260.150.000.82
20270.140.000.81
20280.140.000.81
20290.130.000.80

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Red Crossbill in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ElbertCOLORADO132024
Hay SpringsNEBRASKA102019
KiowaCOLORADO82016
Pine BluffWYOMING41981
CrawfordNEBRASKA32024
KimballNEBRASKA22022
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.