BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red Crossbill In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGeneralists

Red Crossbill in Badlands and Prairies has declined: down 28% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-28%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red Crossbill in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Red Crossbill In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 65% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 0.00–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+65%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±62.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 65% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 0.00–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.90.0010
20263.90.0010
20273.80.0010
20283.80.0010
20293.80.0010

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Red Crossbill in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Roubaix LkSOUTH-DAKOTA761991
MoskeeWYOMING722001
Black FoxSOUTH-DAKOTA502017
NorbeckSOUTH-DAKOTA452002
Lightning CrSOUTH-DAKOTA372022
RochfordSOUTH-DAKOTA332018
Elk MountainSOUTH-DAKOTA302004
Silver CitySOUTH-DAKOTA292012
Pleasant ValSOUTH-DAKOTA262024
Two DotMONTANA252001
SundanceWYOMING232024
HazelrodtSOUTH-DAKOTA222024
CusterSOUTH-DAKOTA212024
Maynard CouleeMONTANA162024
BrandenbergMONTANA152019
EnglewoodSOUTH-DAKOTA152021
RosebudSOUTH-DAKOTA141969
Wind Cave NpSOUTH-DAKOTA122024
DaytonWYOMING102024
Moskee 2WYOMING102021
Chuffey SpringMONTANA92021
RoundupMONTANA82024
Hill CitySOUTH-DAKOTA82013
SeelyWYOMING81999
Moskee 3WYOMING82024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.